Understanding Truckload’s Path to Equilibrium

In the ever-evolving landscape of freight transportation, the truckload sector stands out as a critical component of supply chain dynamics. As businesses navigate the complexities of logistics amid fluctuating demand, understanding the path to equilibrium in truckload shipping becomes imperative. This article delves into the intricate factors influencing the truckload market, including capacity constraints, pricing strategies, and the impact of economic trends. With a focus on how carriers and shippers can align their operations to achieve a balanced state, we will explore the key variables at play, such as fuel prices, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. By analyzing historical data and current market conditions, we aim to shed light on the cyclical nature of the truckload industry and the strategies that can be employed to foster stability. Whether you are a logistics manager, a carrier, or a shipper, grasping the nuances of this equilibrium will enable you to make informed decisions that enhance efficiency and profitability. Join us as we embark on a comprehensive examination of the truckload sector’s trajectory, providing valuable insights into how stakeholders can effectively adapt and thrive in a competitive environment.

Post-Pandemic Truckload Market Turmoil

The U.S. truckload market has undergone significant transformation since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the industry experiencing dramatic swings in capacity, demand, and pricing. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the truckload market found itself awash in excess capacity. This oversupply stemmed from a combination of factors, including the entry of new carriers during the pandemic-era freight boom and subsequent softening of demand as consumer spending patterns normalized. The oversupply situation was further complicated by volatile trade policies, with tariff rhetoric accelerating in early 2025 and creating uncertainty in import patterns.

As market conditions deteriorated, thousands of small- and midsize trucking carriers faced unsustainable economics, leading to widespread business failures and market exits. This natural, if painful, adjustment mechanism began to rebalance the supply-demand equation that had tilted heavily in shippers’ favor during the post-COVID era. These exits, while disruptive, acted as a corrective force, helping remove underperforming capacity and tightening market dynamics. The exodus of carriers was driven by significant cost pressures. Publicly traded freight brokerage RXO noted in its quarterly market report that “the average cost to operate a truck is 34% higher over the past decade but absolute spot rates are largely the same as they were in 2014.” This economic reality made it increasingly difficult for carriers to maintain profitability, particularly smaller operators without the scale or financial resources to weather prolonged market weakness.

A Shifting Landscape and Emerging Equilibrium

According to RXO, the truckload market “has remained relatively calm” with spot rates continuing to step higher despite disruption from rapidly changing tariff policies. The market has followed a trend – largely in place since 2023 – of soft freight demand, reductions in carrier capacity, and gradually stabilizing rates. This balance is slowly being restored, although fragility remains a concern for stakeholders navigating the evolving landscape. The situation created what RXO described as “a difficult landscape for carriers,” with many “running with unsustainable unit economics.” This harsh operating environment accelerated the pace of carrier exits, despite “a couple of atypical months of operating authority growth in March and April.” These exceptions did little to reverse the overall decline in active carriers.

By mid-2025, the prolonged exodus of carriers finally brought the market closer to equilibrium. As RXO observed in its quarterly forecast, “We’re as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we’ve been in over two years.” The broker noted that “relatively speaking, the capacity situation is much more fragile than at this time last year,” signaling a shift in leverage back toward carriers.

Indicators of Recovery and Rate Movement

This newfound balance began manifesting in key market indicators. The national average Outbound Tender Rejection Index, which measures the percentage of tendered loads rejected by carriers, climbed to 6.67% by June 2025 – reaching the threshold where rejections start putting inflationary pressure on spot rates. Most enterprise shippers prefer to maintain tender acceptance percentages in the upper 90s, meaning many were already experiencing problematic service levels that could impact supply chain reliability.

The data also showed improvement in rate trends. TL spot rates (excluding fuel) were up 9.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, following an 11.6% growth rate during the fourth quarter of 2024. Contractual rates also increased 1.4% year over year in the first quarter – the first annual increase since the end of 2022. These metrics point to a strengthening position for carriers and rising costs for shippers as balance returns to the market.

A notable development in the recovering market has been the emergence of significant regional disparities. By June 2025, tender rejection rates for truckload shipments originating in the Southeast surpassed 10% – marking the first time in nearly three years they reached that level. In contrast, rejection rates for freight departing the West Coast remained well below the national average and were the lowest among the seven major U.S. regions.

Regional Disparities and the Intermodal Shift

This contrast was particularly striking given the focus on imports and Southern California ports that handle the bulk of U.S. container traffic. While tender volumes out of the Southeast were down 6% year over year, West Coast volumes declined 14% annually, suggesting that demand alone wasn’t driving the regional disparity. Other structural shifts in transportation were likely influencing these outcomes. Part of the explanation lies in intermodal transportation patterns. Much of the long-haul freight demand from the West shifted to rail, with intermodal capturing a large share from the truckload sector. Loaded container volumes moving by rail out of Los Angeles remained up year over year, even as they dipped alongside declining import levels. Meanwhile, long-haul tender volumes out of Los Angeles dropped 26% annually.

By June 2025, the “interior” markets of Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas showed the tightest capacity conditions among major freight centers. Atlanta’s outbound tender rejection rate reached 8.89%, continuing an upward trend that began in late February. Chicago’s rejection rate stood at 7.07%, while Dallas reported 6.86% – all above the national average and reflective of increasing difficulty securing truckload capacity in central regions.

Looking Ahead: Volatility and Cautious Optimism

The market trajectory for truckload rates remains “inflationary,” according to RXO, though trade policy presents a significant wild card. The 3PL classified the early part of 2025 as “still primarily a shippers’ market” but noted that “with a continued difficult landscape for carriers, and (in many cases) decreasing 2025 contract rates setting in, it could set the stage for volatility later in 2025.” The expectation of more market swings underscores the uncertainty facing industry stakeholders. The broader trend for 2025 calls for more carrier exits and high operating costs to keep upward pressure on rates. RXO pointed to the possibility of a more material uptick in rates if trade tensions calm ahead of peak season and carrier exits become more pronounced. In that scenario, “contract rates and routing guides set in the softer market of 2024 may not survive a tighter market late in 2025, when the spot market will likely become more lucrative than the contract market.”

Transportation prices were forecast to be significantly higher a year from now, with industry respondents returning a reading of 75 for the pricing outlook in the Logistics Managers’ Index. There is a growing consensus that “the worst-case scenarios associated with potential tariffs will not come to pass,” and 2026 could reflect a more robust transportation recovery, barring a macroeconomic recession.

Conclusion: A Market Poised for Reactive Shifts

The U.S. truckload market has traveled a difficult road since the pandemic, moving from extreme oversupply to a more balanced state through the painful but necessary process of carrier exits. This gradual market healing has finally restored equilibrium between supply and demand, enabling carriers to regain pricing power as evidenced by rising tender rejection rates and strengthening spot market conditions. However, the market remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly trade policy developments and potential economic headwinds. The significant reduction in truckload capacity over the past year has made the market more responsive to even modest demand changes. With volatility expected to define the remainder of 2025, stakeholders will need to stay agile and informed in order to adapt to whatever shifts lie ahead.

Stay Informed and Stay Compliant in a Volatile Market

As the U.S. truckload market continues to shift — from post-pandemic oversupply to a more fragile balance of capacity and demand — staying informed is not just a competitive advantage, it’s a necessity. With rising spot rates, tender rejections climbing, and economic pressures reshaping operations, it’s crucial to keep pace with regulatory changes and market signals.

At Labworks USA, we support carriers and fleet operators not just with insights into industry trends but also with essential compliance services. If you’re navigating the challenges of today’s trucking landscape and need reliable support for DOT drug and alcohol testing or FMCSA Clearinghouse registration, our DOT Consortium team is here to help. We’re committed to making sure you stay fully compliant — so you can focus on staying ahead in a tightening and volatile market.

Stay connected with us for updates, actionable insights, and innovative solutions for your trucking and logistics needs.

Tags: supply and demand, Spot Rates, truckload market, Freight markets, supply chain, Freight demand, market conditions, contract rates, freight rates, dry van, truckload capacity, truckload rates, transportation providers, truckload carriers, produce season, first quarter, full truckload, carrier capacity, seasonal demand, operating authorities, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, market capacity, contractual rates, carrier exits, truck drivers, trade policy, COVID-19 pandemic, tariff policy, market dynamics, Capacity tightness, tender rejection rates, tender acceptance, LTL carrier, Order backlogs, ACT Research, market expert, softening of demand, consumer sentiment, Spot load-to-truck ratios, Outbound Tender Rejection Index, driver satisfaction, regional disparities, freight boom, tariff rhetoric, intermodal transportation, logistics managers' index, the Curve, seasonal demand cycle, annual procurement, logistics industry, route guide depth, English language proficiency, refrigerated van, Class 8 tractor, Market Insights, freight networks, International Roadcheck, market equilibrium, market capacity cycle, truckload market economics, freight cycles, freight capacity, market fluctuations, capacity constraints, produce volumes, capacity disruptions, import growth, driver employment, crude oil production, reefer rates, spot rate index, truck driver availability, Outbound Tender Reject Index, Outbound Tender Volume Index, Marten Transport, macroeconomic outlook, inflationary environment, Q2 forecast, supply chain automation, Class 8 trucks, Yellow Freight, Estes Express Lines, Union Pacific, Pitt Ohio, National Motor Freight Classification, First Call, consumer behavior, e-commerce retailers, roadside test, commercial license, federal guidance, Cass Information Systems, long-term agreements, procurement exercise, market structure, U.S. truckload market, Truckload Linehaul Index®, driver compliance, Los Angeles ports, A. Duie Pyle, C.H. Robinson, Wheels of Commerce, Freight Index®, Third-party logistics (3PLs)